Shiny Odds Calculator
Pick your game era and method, enter how many encounters you're planning (or have already done), and see your real odds.
Shiny Pokemon are alternate-colored versions of a species, and finding one naturally is rare — but exactly how rare depends on which game you’re playing and which method you’re using to hunt.
The Base Odds
- Generation 2 through Generation 5 (Gold/Silver through Black 2/White 2): 1 in 8,192 per encounter.
- Generation 6 onward (X/Y through Scarlet/Violet): 1 in 4,096 per encounter — the rate was doubled starting with X and Y and has stayed there since.
Every wild encounter, egg hatch, or static encounter is an independent roll against that base rate — there’s no memory between encounters, so a long dry streak doesn’t make the next one more likely.
How Hunting Methods Change the Odds
Most shiny-hunting methods work by giving you extra “rolls” against the shiny check on a single encounter, rather than changing the base rate itself.
Shiny Charm. Awarded for completing a regional Pokedex, it adds two extra rolls per encounter — pushing modern-game odds from 1/4,096 to roughly 1/1,365.
Masuda Method. Breeding two Pokemon from games registered to different language settings adds five extra rolls to every egg. In modern games, that brings odds to roughly 1/683 — and stacked with the Shiny Charm, up to roughly 1/512.
Chain-based methods (DexNav chaining, SOS chaining, chain fishing) work differently — odds improve the longer an unbroken chain runs, with diminishing returns that cap out well before guaranteed odds. These are game-specific and don’t reduce to a single flat multiplier, so they’re not part of the calculator’s simple roll model below.
Calculate Your Odds
Use the calculator on this page to see your odds per encounter and your cumulative probability of finding a shiny after a set number of encounters or resets, based on your game era and method.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the odds of a shiny Pokemon without any boosts?
1 in 8,192 in Generation 2–5 games, or 1 in 4,096 in Generation 6 and later.
Does the Shiny Charm guarantee a shiny eventually?
No — it improves the odds to roughly 1 in 1,365 per encounter in modern games, but every encounter is still an independent chance.
Can I combine the Masuda Method and Shiny Charm?
Yes — combined, modern-game odds come out to roughly 1 in 512 per egg.
Does a long streak without a shiny mean one is “due”?
No — each encounter is statistically independent. Past encounters don’t affect future odds.
Why don’t chain-fishing or DexNav odds show up as a simple fraction?
Those methods use a stepped, diminishing-returns curve tied to consecutive chain length rather than a flat extra-rolls bonus, so they’re calculated differently game to game.